Risks of Volatility Products
Trading and investing in volatility-related Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) is not appropriate for all investors and presents different risks than other types of products. Among other things, ETPs are subject to the risks you may face if investing in the components of the ETP, including the risks relating to investing in complex securities (such as futures and swaps) and risks associated with the effects of leveraged investing in geared funds. Investors should be familiar with the diverse characteristics of each ETF, ETN, future, option, swap and any other relevant security type. We have summarized several risk factors (as identified in prospectuses for ETPs and in other sources) and included links so you can conduct further research. Please keep in mind that this is not a complete list of the risks associated with these products and investors are responsible for understanding and familiarizing themselves completely before entering into risk-taking activities. By providing this information, Interactive Brokers (IB) is not offering investment or trading advice regarding ETPs to any customer. Customers (and/or their independent financial advisors) must decide for themselves whether ETPs are an appropriate investment for their portfolios.
An ETP may not be benchmarked to the index it appears to track
"An investor should only consider an investment in a Fund if he or she understands the consequences of seeking exposure to VIX futures contracts. The Funds are benchmarked to the S&P VIX Short-Term Futures Index, an investable index of VIX futures contracts. The Funds are not benchmarked to the VIX Index. The VIX Index is a non-investable index that measures the implied volatility of the S&P 500. For these purposes, "implied volatility" is a measure of the expected volatility (i.e., the rate and magnitude of variations in performance) of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. The VIX Index does not represent the actual volatility of the S&P 500. The VIX Index is calculated based on the prices of a constantly changing portfolio of S&P 500 put and call options. The Index underlying each Fund consists of short-term VIX futures contracts. As such, the performance of the Index and the Funds can be expected to be very different from the actual volatility of the S&P 500 or the performance of the VIX Index." [Page 1]
"… your ability to benefit from any rise or fall in the level of the VIX Index is limited. The Index underlying your ETNs is based upon holding a rolling long position in futures on the VIX Index. These futures will not necessarily track the performance of the VIX Index. Your ETNs may not benefit from increases in the level of the VIX Index because such increases will not necessarily cause the level of VIX Index futures to rise. Accordingly, a hypothetical investment that was linked directly to the VIX Index could generate a higher return than your ETNs." [Page PS-12]
ETPs may not provide a suitable hedge
"Historical correlation trends between the Index and other asset classes may not continue or may reverse, limiting or eliminating any potential diversification or other benefit from owning a Fund." [Page 20]
Volatility based ETPs are volatile in themselves and are not intended for long term investment
"… investments can be highly volatile and the Funds may experience large losses from buying, selling or holding such investments. ... In addition, gains, if any, may be subject to significant and unexpected reversals. The Funds generally are intended to be used only for short-term investment horizons. As with all investments, an investor in any of the Funds could potentially lose the full principal value of his/her investment, even over periods as short as one day." [Page 1]
"The ETNs are only suitable for a very short investment horizon. The relationship between the level of the VIX Index and the underlying futures on the VIX Index will begin to break down as the length of an investor’s holding period increases, even within the course of a single Index Business Day. ... The ETNs are not long term substitutes for long or short positions in the futures underlying the VIX Index. ... The long term expected value of your ETNs is zero. If you hold your ETNs as a long term investment, it is likely that you will lose all or a substantial portion of your investment. " [Page PS-15]
The use of leveraged positions could result in the total loss of an investment
"The Ultra Fund utilizes leverage in seeking to achieve its investment objective and will lose more money in market environments adverse to its respective daily investment objectives than funds that do not employ leverage…
For example, because the Ultra Fund includes a two times (2x) multiplier, a single-day movement in the Index approaching 50% at any point in the day could result in the total loss or almost total loss of an investor’s investment if that movement is contrary to the investment objective of the Fund, even if the Index subsequently moves in an opposite direction, eliminating all or a portion of the movement…
Inverse positions can also result in the total loss of an investor’s investment. For the Inverse Fund, a single-day or intraday increase in the level of the Fund’s benchmark approaching 100% could result in the total loss or almost total loss of an investor’s investment, even if such Fund’s benchmark subsequently moves lower. " [Page 14]
Possible illiquid markets may exacerbate losses
"Financial Instruments cannot always be liquidated at the desired price. It is difficult to execute a trade at a specific price when there is a relatively small volume of buy and sell orders in a market. A market disruption can also make it difficult to liquidate a position or find a swap counterparty at a reasonable cost. " [Page 17]
Short covering may intensify losses in volatility-related ETPs
In the event of a sudden market volatility change, many traders with positions in volatility-related products will incur substantial unexpected losses. These losses may cause them to choose to close their positions. The losses may also result in margin deficits and subsequent liquidations of some or all positions. Such closing trades will add to the movement of these products. Since speculative interest in the VIX is at an all-time high, there may be no precedent for what will happen if volatility moves quickly.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets. As of September 2017 CFTC reported VIX speculative net short is at an all-time high.
"Despite the fact that the average daily closing value of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is about 11.5 so far this year, VIX futures and options both had record days for volume and for open interest this month. … VIX futures hit a new record for open interest with more than 673,000 contracts on August 7 (2017), and VIX options reached a new record for open interest with 14,783,380 contracts open on August 15 (2017)."
*As this data is constantly changing, investors in volatility-related products should regularly check for updates.
ETP issuers may redeem shares for cash in the event of extreme moves
"The Intraday Indicative Value on any Index Business Day could be reduced to 20% or less of the prior day’s Closing Indicative Value. If this occurs, we may choose to exercise our right to effect an Event Acceleration of the ETNs for an amount equal to that day’s Closing Indicative Value and you may not receive any of your initial investment." [Page PS-17]